Strong close to Q3. September registrations reached 1,498 units, up 14.9% year on year from 1,304 and 8.7% above August's 1,378. Q3 2026 totalled 4,409 units, the strongest quarter since Q2 2016 and the third consecutive quarter of sequential growth. Year to date sales of 12,254 units are 12.4% ahead of 2025.
August's slowdown did not extend. Our August report asked whether its 8.6% growth rate marked the start of a slowdown. September says no. Growth re-accelerated in every segment except trucks, and the market has now topped 1,490 units in four of nine months, a level no month reached between August 2016 and December 2025.
SBN is our top pick. We downgrade FirstRand to HOLD and Capricorn to SELL. On the one half all three banks have reported, January to June 2026, SBN Holdings is the only one compounding on operations: pre provision profit rose 5.1% on a flat credit charge and a loan book up 17.4%, yet the market prices a 17.9% return on equity against the 19.2% it delivers. BUY, target 1,620c, 19.1% total return. FirstRand Namibia remains the best franchise in the market, but lower impairments supplied 80% of its operating improvement and a 15% rerating has taken most of the upside. HOLD, target 6,200c. Capricorn Group is priced for a 20.7% return on equity against 13.7% forecast, after a N$328m swing in Botswana and a fall in stage 3 coverage to 43.1%. Its Centrafin acquisition creates value only if bought below about 1.3x book. SELL, target 2,680c. With rates turning, each 25bps is worth about 2% of profit at all three banks, and capital, not earnings, is now the binding constraint.
The headline overstates the recovery. Combined approvals across Windhoek and Swakopmund rose to 284 plans worth N$462.5 million in September, 57.5% more in value than a year ago on 8.7% fewer plans. The pattern now holds across the year: values rise because individual projects get larger, not because more households and firms are building. Q3 2026 delivered N$1,175.8 million, the strongest quarter since Q1 2025, yet the plan count fell to 847 from 928.
Namibia Trade: August Relief, Structural Strain, and the Race for the Orange Basin Shore Base. The trade deficit narrowed to N$3.9bn in August, almost entirely on a N$2.7bn jump in uranium exports. The relief is cyclical, not structural: the year to date deficit of N$29.6bn is more than double last year’s, petroleum drives 64.9% of the August gap, and minerals and energy now make up 69.7% of exports. Our special feature puts a number on the Orange Basin opportunity: Venus alone could add N$62bn to N$89bn a year in exports. Namibia’s ports can support one, perhaps two, operators in full development, while South Africa’s Boegoebaai advances 20 km from the border. The window to secure the shore base, and the local value it captures, closes in 2027.
Inflation rose to 5.4% in September, its highest since January 2024, and we expect it to peak near 6.2% in March 2027. Fuel is the driver, with transport up 14.9% and contributing 42% of the headline print. The shock is now broadening: core inflation rose for a fifth month to 4.0%, and air fares, furnishings and medical products are all accelerating. Relief arrives only from April 2027, when last year’s fuel increases drop out of the base. We expect the Bank of Namibia to hike to 7.00% on 21 October. Our positioning is defensive into the peak. We favour T-bills earning a 2.5% real yield, the belly of the GC curve, inflation-linked bonds, consumer staples and gold and uranium exposure. We avoid discretionary retail, property and the illiquid long end, and plan to add duration in the first quarter of 2027 as inflation turns.
Namibia set up the Welwitschia Fund in 2022, years before revenue from commercial petroleum production reaches the state. It held N$508.47 million at the end of July 2026 and has a reported annualised return since inception of 15.5% (currency and fee basis still to be confirmed). The 2023 draft Bill is a sound start: two accounts, administration by the Bank of Namibia, a ban on lending to government or pledging Fund assets, and regular reporting. The risk sits in the rules that decide how much is saved and when it can be spent, which are still unfinished.